This project performs an inferential statistical analysis on a dataset of 280 rural households in Maharashtra, India. The study moves beyond descriptive statistics to test fundamental hypotheses regarding the structural drivers of rural wealth, liquidity, and social exclusion.
By applying Hypothesis Testing (t-Tests, ANOVA, Correlation) via JASP, the project identifies whether traditional wealth proxies—such as housing type and land ownership—remain statistically significant in an era of high state welfare and non-farm diversification.
The analysis utilized JASP to execute the following statistical tests:
- One-Way ANOVA: Conducted to measure economic parity across social categories (General, OBC, and Scheduled Castes).
- Independent t-Tests: Utilized to evaluate the validity of "Housing Type" (Pucca vs. Kuccha) as a proxy for household expenditure.
- Pearson Correlation: Performed to determine the degree of decoupling between land ownership and actual liquid consumption.
- Assumption Testing: Verified normality and homogeneity of variance (Levene’s Test) to ensure the robustness of the inferential models.
- The Housing Proxy Myth: The study successfully debunked the assumption that a "Pucca" (permanent) house predicts higher household liquidity. The lack of statistical significance suggests that government housing subsidies (PMAY) have normalized housing, making it an unreliable filter for targeted welfare.
- Structural Caste Exclusion: ANOVA results confirmed that while OBCs have reached economic parity with the General category, Scheduled Castes (SC) remain a statistically distinct economic underclass with significantly lower mean expenditures.
- Land-Rich, Cash-Poor: Correlation analysis revealed a weakening link between land size and consumption, indicating a structural shift toward non-farm income for daily liquidity needs.
- Refine Welfare Filters: Shift away from "Housing Type" as a primary criterion for BPL (Below Poverty Line) targeting.
- Asset-Backed Liquidity: Develop financial products (e.g., micro-credit lines) specifically for households that own land but lack daily cash flow.
- Enterprise-Focused SHG Loans: Prioritize funding for retail and service-based small enterprises over traditional seasonal crop loans to boost village-wide liquidity.
Rural_Economic_Inference_Study_Report.pdf: The complete research paper including JASP output tables and socio-economic interpretations.Rural_Household_Demographics_Dataset.xlsx: Survey data from 280 households across rural Maharashtra.
Analyst: Aryan Prakash
Tools: JASP, Excel (Data Cleaning), Inferential Statistics
Domain: Public Policy, Socio-Economic Research, Rural Development