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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html class="" lang="zh-CN" >
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta name="keywords" content="有赞,移动电商服务平台" />
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来吧，一切才刚刚开始 </h2>
<p class="sub_title"><span class="sub_title_date">2016-02-17</span><span class="sub_title_author">罗振宇</span><a class="sub_title_link js-open-follow" href="javascript:;">罗辑思维</a></p>
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<p><img class="js-lazy js-view-image-item" data-src="https://img.yzcdn.cn/upload_files/2016/02/16/FjVxFTriJ_xd8wlMg3Vx7x4xIV_M.jpg!730x0.jpg"/></p><p><span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">本文是罗胖关于凯文·凯利《必然》的第13篇读书笔记。</span></p><p>《必然》的最后一章，名字却叫开始。<br/></p><p>是什么开始了？<br/></p><p>一个超级智能。<br/></p><p>凯文·凯利把这一章写得像科幻小说，又像惊悚小说。<br/></p><p>到底是科幻还是惊悚，要看你是乐观的人，还是悲观的人。<br/></p><p>这一章里，凯文·凯利说了这么几层意思——</p><section><section style="text-align: center;"><section style="text-align: center; white-space: normal; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.8em; border-bottom-color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 28px; color: rgb(249, 110, 87); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 1 </section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">人类只干了一件事：织网</span></strong></span><br/></p><p>“千年之后，当历史学家回溯过往时，会认为第三个千禧年的开端是一个古老的绝妙时代。在这个时代中，地球上的居民首次把自己与一种巨大的事物相连。未来，它的规模将会继续增加，但是如今，你我正生活在它刚刚苏醒的时刻。未来的人会羡慕我们，希望自己也能亲眼见证它的诞生。”<br/></p><p>在凯文·凯利看来，最近这 30 年人类在干什么？</p><p>人类只干了一件事，就是“织网”。<br/></p><p>我们用玻璃、铜和电磁波组成神经，把所有的地区、过程、人口、人工制品、传感器、事实和概念编辑成一张复杂到难以想象的巨网，然后把我们自己和这个超级智能连接起来。<span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">这个过程是这个星球上至今为止发生过的最重要、最复杂也是最令人惊叹的事件。</span><br/></p><p>我们正处在这个巨大网络的胚胎期，但已经可以看到一些新的可能性，比如包括完美的搜索、完整的回忆、全球高度的视野在内的全新思考方式。<br/></p><section><section style="text-align: center;"><section style="text-align: center; white-space: normal; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.8em; border-bottom-color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 28px; color: rgb(249, 110, 87); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 2 </section></section></section></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">人类有史以来最大的创造物</span></strong></span><br/></p><p>凯文·凯利给这张巨网起了个名字：<span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">霍洛斯</span>（Holos）。<br/></p><p>霍洛斯包括所有人的集体行为、所有机器的集体行为、自然界的智能相结合形成的整体，以及出现在这个整体中的任何行为。<span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">这是人类有史以来最大的创造物。</span><br/></p><p>来看看硬件。这个系统包含了 40 亿部手机、20 亿台电脑、几十亿周边芯片，以及从相机、汽车到卫星的附属设备。在 2015 年，接入这个系统的设备有 150 亿。任何一个设备都有 100 万 - 400 万的晶体管。如果你把晶体管想象成巨型大脑里的神经元，这个系统的神经元数量是人脑的 4 亿倍。而且，每过几年就会翻一番。<br/></p><p><section><section style="text-align: center;"><section style="text-align: center; white-space: normal; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.8em; border-bottom-color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 28px; color: rgb(249, 110, 87); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 3 </section></section><br/></section></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">人类是超级智能的程序员</span></strong></span><br/></p><p>凯文·凯利说，你也可以把这个系统当成一台虚拟电脑。<br/></p><p>然后一个有趣的问题来了，谁给这台电脑编写代码？<br/></p><p>答案是我们自己。<br/></p><p>你可能觉得，自己随意地上上网或者跟朋友聊聊天只不过在打发时间。其实并不是这样。<span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">我们每点一次链接，就是在强化霍洛斯大脑中某个节点的功能，就是在为它编写代码。</span>而我们现在每天要点击网页 1000 亿次。<br/></p><p>凯文·凯利估计，10 年之后，全世界每个人都会在这个系统里面生活，同时也是系统的一部分。<br/></p><p>目前来说，这个系统：<br/>实时覆盖 5.1 亿平方公里的地面，<br/>包括 150 亿机器、40 亿人，<br/>消耗地球上 5% 的电能，<br/>以远远超过人类的速度运行，<br/>白天的一半时间在追踪我们，<br/>并且是货币的主要流动渠道。<br/></p><p><section><section style="text-align: center;"><section style="text-align: center; white-space: normal; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.8em; border-bottom-color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 28px; color: rgb(249, 110, 87); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 4 </section></section><br/></section></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">超级系统的“新常态”</span></strong></span><br/></p><p>你乍一看，这个无处不在的超级系统就像我们传统社会的自然延伸。</p><p>好像只是在我们面对面的关系之外加入了虚拟关系——<br/></p><p>比如说在网上加了几个好友，扩大了朋友圈，增加了新闻来源，让行动变得数字化了一点。<br/></p><p>但实际上，当这些事情持续稳定地发展，我们会来到一个拐点，突然进入到一个新的阶段。用现在流行的话说——我们会进入“<span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">新常态</span>”。<br/></p><p>现在，我们正处在这个过程的开始阶段。</p><p>中央集权、统一性之类的旧文化力量会消失。<br/></p><p><span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">分享（Sharing）、追踪（Tracking）和使用（Accessing）之类的新文化力量将会主宰机构和个人生活。</span><br/></p><p>有些人认为我们分享的内容已经太多了，其实大规模的分享才刚刚开始。<br/></p><p>看上去我们已经被过度追踪，未来几十年我们被追踪的程度是现在的上千倍。</p><p>我们从拥有权到使用权的过渡也刚起步。<br/></p><p>高度的<span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">知化（Cognifying）</span>会让我们现在从事的最智能的事情看上去蠢得不行。同时，它会大大加速其他变化进程。<br/></p><p>而这些转变不是最终的，只是一个开始。<br/></p><p><section><section style="text-align: center;"><section style="text-align: center; white-space: normal; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; display: inline-block; padding: 0px 0.8em; border-bottom-color: rgb(160, 160, 160); font-size: 28px; color: rgb(249, 110, 87); box-sizing: border-box;"><section style="box-sizing: border-box;"> 5 </section></section><br/></section></section><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 20px;"><strong><span style="font-size: 18px;">读懂《必然》，未来运气不会太坏</span></strong></span><br/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;">我们完全没法预测 30 年后身边都有哪些产品、品牌或者公司。<br/></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;">这些完全取决于机遇和命运。</p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px;">但这个大规模的、充满活力的过程的整个方向，是清晰无误的。<br/></p><p><br/><section><section><p><span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">罗胖插嘴：</span></p></section><p>1. 凯文·凯利最后是想提醒我们，现在你觉得已经很过分的东西，没准只是一个开始。<br/></p><p>2. 《必然》的 12 个关键词，塑造了一种“元结构”，你可以按自己的理解往下续写和补充。<br/></p><p>3. 读懂这本《必然》的创业者，未来的运气不会太坏。<br/></p></section><p></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px; white-space: normal;"><span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">戳↓</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">↓</span><span style="color: rgb(192, 0, 0);">↓，收藏《必然》。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 10px; 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