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🗳️ Election Cycle Analysis Template

📊 Electoral Lens — Parameterised by Cycle Anchor (current / next)
🎯 Coalition Scenarios · Voter Salience · Campaign Vulnerability · Policy Legacy

Owner Version Effective Date Classification

📋 Document Owner: CEO | 📄 Version: 2.0 | 📅 Last Updated: 2026-05-01 (UTC) 🏢 Owner: Hack23 AB (Org.nr 5595347807) | 🏷️ Classification: Public

📌 Template instructions: Produce for every workflow that declares electionCycleAnchor ∈ {current, next, both} in analysis/article-types.json. Save as analysis/daily/${ARTICLE_DATE}/${DOC_TYPE}/election-2026-analysis.md (stable filename) or election-cycle-analysis.md (post-rollover alias). Integrates with voter-segmentation.md, coalition-mathematics.md, and synthesis-summary.md.

✨ What to produce: A focused electoral assessment of the day's documents against the active election cycle (resolved at runtime), classified CRITICAL → NEGLIGIBLE, with coalition-scenario consequences and a dated watchlist.

📐 Template Contract — every fill of this template MUST satisfy this row.

Slot Value
Owning methodology per-artifact-methodologies.md
Owning gate check Check 8 (Family D — seat deltas) — see 05-analysis-gate.md
Required inputs polling, voter-segmentation.md, coalition-mathematics.md
Horizon band cycle (T+1460) (per scripts/horizon-context.ts)
Output family Family D — Electoral & Domain
Aggregation order 12 of 30 in canonical order (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/order.ts)
Reader Intelligence Guide row generated from election-2026-analysis.md (see scripts/render-lib/aggregator/reader-guide.ts)
Canonical evidence anchor | claim | evidence (dok_id / vote / MP intressent_id / primary-source URL) | retrieved_at | confidence | — every analytical claim row uses this schema.

Cross-reference: README.md §Template ↔ Methodology ↔ Gate-Check Matrix.

🔧 Cycle-Anchor Parameter Resolution

Resolution source: scripts/horizon-context.ts → activeCycleAnchor(articleDate) + analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles.

Parameter Source Value
cycleAnchor activeCycleAnchor(articleDate) current | next
cycleStart electionCycles[cycleAnchor].start e.g. 2022-09-11 (current) or 2026-09-13 (next)
cycleEnd electionCycles[cycleAnchor].end e.g. 2026-09-13 (current) or 2030-09-08 (next)
cycleLabel electionCycles[cycleAnchor].label e.g. Tidö 2022–2026 (current) or Post-2026 Mandate (next)
governingCoalition electionCycles[cycleAnchor].governingCoalition party array or null (next)
daysSinceCycleStart articleDate − cycleStart (days) computed at runtime
daysToCycleEnd cycleEnd − articleDate (days) computed at runtime
daysToElection daysToElection(articleDate) signed integer (negative = past)

Cycle-anchor footnote: The Swedish general elections anchoring this template are 2026-09-13 (next election from the current cycle) and 2030-09-08 (projected next election from the post-2026 cycle). See analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles for the authoritative dates.

🔄 Tradecraft Context

Element Value
F3EAD Stage ANALYZE → DISSEMINATE — electoral intelligence product
PIRs Served PIR-6 (Election Integrity), PIR-1 (Coalition Stability)
Admiralty Floor Polling data requires [B2] (named pollster, date, MoE); seat projections require [B2]
WEP + ODNI Electoral outcome scenarios use WEP (likely/very likely for coalition continuity; roughly even for bloc shift); confidence MODERATE (polling inherent uncertainty)
Source Diversity Floor P0 (election outcome claims): ≥4 sources (≥3 polls + ≥1 historical model); single poll labeled [unconfirmed — single source]
SAT(s) Applied Morphological Analysis (bloc combinations), Indicators and Signposts (campaign milestones)
ICD 203 Standards 2 (uncertainties — polling MoE), 5 (customer relevance — electoral calendar), 9 (visual information)

📋 Electoral Context

Field Value
Analysis ID ELC-YYYY-MM-DD-NNN
Generated YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC
Cycle anchor ${cycleAnchor} (current or next)
Cycle label ${cycleLabel}
Cycle window ${cycleStart} → ${cycleEnd}
Days since cycle start ${daysSinceCycleStart}
Days to cycle end ${daysToCycleEnd}
Days to election ${daysToElection}
Phase Pre-campaign · Campaign (Aug-Sep) · Final week · Post-election
Latest SIFO (government block) XX%
Latest SIFO (opposition block) XX%
Electoral significance verdict 🔴 CRITICAL / 🟠 HIGH / 🟡 MODERATE / 🟢 LOW / ⚪ NEGLIGIBLE

🧭 Electoral Significance Classification

flowchart LR
    DOC["📄 Today's documents"] --> EVAL["🧪 Evaluate 5 dimensions"]
    EVAL --> D1["🎯 Electoral Impact"]
    EVAL --> D2["🧩 Coalition Scenarios"]
    EVAL --> D3["🫂 Voter Salience"]
    EVAL --> D4["⚔️ Campaign Vulnerability"]
    EVAL --> D5["📜 Policy Legacy"]
    D1 --> VERDICT["🏷️ Verdict<br/>CRITICAL / HIGH / MODERATE / LOW / NEGLIGIBLE"]
    D2 --> VERDICT
    D3 --> VERDICT
    D4 --> VERDICT
    D5 --> VERDICT

    style DOC fill:#1565C0,color:#FFFFFF
    style EVAL fill:#7B1FA2,color:#FFFFFF
    style VERDICT fill:#D32F2F,color:#FFFFFF
Loading
Tier Criterion Example
🔴 CRITICAL Event will directly affect the outcome Coalition fracture, grundlag change, scandal confirmation
🟠 HIGH Significant pre-election narrative contribution Fiscal package, major justice bill, foreign-policy pivot
🟡 MODERATE Peripheral electoral relevance Sector-specific reform with indirect voter effect
🟢 LOW Minimal electoral impact Routine administrative change
⚪ NEGLIGIBLE No discernible electoral dimension Technical corrigenda

🎯 5-Dimension Electoral Assessment

Dimension 1 — Electoral Impact

Item Value
Claim e.g., HD03236 raises incumbent retention probability by 2–4 pp
Evidence SIFO month-on-month change in target segments
Confidence 🟩 HIGH
Net shift +2–4 pp incumbent

Dimension 2 — Coalition Scenarios

Coalition configuration Before today After today Delta
M-KD-L + SD (current) 47.0 % 47.5 % +0.5 pp
S-C-MP-V 51.5 % 51.0 % −0.5 pp
Centre-grand coalition (S-C-M) 48.0 % 47.8 % −0.2 pp

Dimension 3 — Voter Salience

Segment Affected (n) Direction Source
Rural drivers 1.2 M ➕ positive for incumbent HD03236 fuel-tax
Suburban homeowners 1.8 M ➕ positive for incumbent HD03236 energy support
Urban renters 2.1 M ➖ no benefit HD03236 excludes rental property owners
Climate-conscious voters 0.9 M ➖ negative for incumbent Fuel-tax cut vs. Green Deal

Dimension 4 — Campaign Vulnerability

Attack vector Who exploits Evidence line Severity
"Regressive fuel-tax cut benefits rich" S + V Distributional analysis 🟠 HIGH
"EU non-compliance" MP + C State-aid risk 🟡 MEDIUM
"Ignores renters" V Excluded segment 🟠 HIGH

Dimension 5 — Policy Legacy

Horizon Legacy question Verdict
${cycleEnd} (campaign / formation) Asset or liability? 🟢 Asset for rural districts; 🟠 Liability for urban renters
+1 year post-cycle Reversible? 🟡 Reversible but costly
+4 years (legacy) Institutional change? 🟢 No lasting institutional effect

🧩 Coalition-Mathematics Hook

graph LR
    GOV["🏛️ Government bloc<br/>M + KD + L<br/>42% + SD 13% = 55"] --> SHIFT["+0.5 pp shift<br/>from HD03236"]
    SHIFT --> GOV2["🏛️ Post-shift bloc<br/>55.5"]
    OPP["🟥 Opposition bloc<br/>S + V + C + MP"] --> SHIFT2["−0.5 pp shift"]
    SHIFT2 --> OPP2["🟥 Post-shift bloc<br/>44.5"]

    style GOV fill:#1565C0,color:#FFFFFF
    style OPP fill:#D32F2F,color:#FFFFFF
    style SHIFT fill:#4CAF50,color:#FFFFFF
    style SHIFT2 fill:#FF9800,color:#FFFFFF
    style GOV2 fill:#7B1FA2,color:#FFFFFF
    style OPP2 fill:#7B1FA2,color:#FFFFFF
Loading

Cross-reference coalition-mathematics.md for full seat-projection arithmetic.

🗓️ Cycle Watchlist

Populate with the key upcoming events within the active cycle window (${cycleStart} → ${cycleEnd}).

Date Event Why it matters
YYYY-MM-DD Key event within cycle Impact on cycle outcome
YYYY-MM-DD Polling milestone Locks positional narrative
${cycleEnd} Cycle end (election / mandate expiry) Outcome

🧠 Electoral-Strategy Read-Through

Party Most likely current move Signal detected today
M … …
S … …
SD … …
C … …
MP … …
V … …
L … …
KD … …

📊 Mandate-Fulfilment Scorecard (cycleAnchor=current ONLY)

Condition: Include this section ONLY when cycleAnchor=current. Omit entirely when cycleAnchor=next.

Tracks the incumbent governing coalition's delivery against their mandate agreement (e.g., Tidö agreement for the 2022–2026 cycle).

Domain Agreement commitment Status Evidence
Migration Paradigm shift (reduced asylum) 🟩 Delivered / 🟨 Partial / 🟥 Undelivered dok_id or named act
Crime Extended sentences, gang prevention … …
Energy Nuclear planning, grid investment … …
Economy Tax reform, fiscal consolidation … …
Healthcare Care guarantee improvement … …
Accountability metric Count / Status Source
KU reprimands this cycle N KU årsredogörelse
Budget proposals delivered (BP) N of expected Riksdagen
Spring-bill (VP) delivery N of expected Riksdagen
Confidence votes survived N Voteringar

🔮 Coalition-Formation Forecast (cycleAnchor=next ONLY)

Condition: Include this section ONLY when cycleAnchor=next. Omit entirely when cycleAnchor=current.

Post-election scenario tree — assesses the most likely government-formation pathways for the upcoming mandate.

Scenario Parties Projected seats Probability (WEP) Key assumption
Continuation (incumbent re-elected) … … … …
Centre-grand coalition … … … …
Left-green bloc … … … …
Minority government … … … …

Opposition trajectory

Opposition actor Strategic posture Signal strength Evidence
Largest opposition party … … …
Potential kingmaker … … …
Threshold-risk party (< 4%) … … …

Formation timeline

Phase Expected date range Key actor Trigger
Election day ${cycleStart} Electorate Vote
Exploratory talks +1–14 days Talman Convention
Government declaration +14–45 days PM candidate Riksdag vote
First budget (BP) +60–120 days New government Fiscal calendar

🔁 Update Cadence

Frequency Action
Every run Update days-to-election and phase fields
Weekly (Sunday) Update SIFO figures and coalition-scenario deltas
On any CRITICAL event Immediate rewrite of 5-dimension assessment

📎 Links

Link Path
Voter segmentation voter-segmentation.md
Coalition mathematics coalition-mathematics.md
Scenario analysis scenario-analysis.md
Synthesis summary synthesis-summary.md

Document Control

  • Template path: /analysis/templates/election-2026-analysis.md
  • Also known as: election-cycle-analysis.md (canonical post-rollover alias), election-2026-implications.md (legacy filename variant)
  • Referenced by: ai-driven-analysis-guide.md § Step 5
  • Parameter source: scripts/horizon-context.ts → activeCycleAnchor(), daysToElection(); analysis/article-types.json → electionCycles
  • Classification: Public
  • Next Review: 2026-07-21

✅ Pass-2 Self-Audit Checklist (v4.4 — required)

Purpose: AI-FIRST principle requires a Pass-2 read-back-and-improve. After producing this artifact in Pass 1, re-read it end-to-end and verify each item below. Document any remediation in methodology-reflection.md §"Pass-2 audit log". Any unchecked ❌ box at the end of Pass 2 forces a Pass-3 rewrite of the affected section.

  • Tradecraft anchors honoured — F3EAD stage matches the artifact's role; PIRs declared in the §Tradecraft Context block are actually addressed in the body; Admiralty grades attached to every external source; WEP band + ODNI confidence on every probabilistic judgement.
  • Source diversity floor met — at least the minimum number of independent MCP sources required by the artifact's tradecraft block are cited; single-source claims are explicitly labelled [SINGLE-SOURCE — corroboration pending].
  • Evidence specificity — every quantified claim cites a dok_id (Riksdag), an SCB / IMF dataflow code, or a named external source with date; no "according to data" / "studies show" hand-waves.
  • Named-actor discipline — every political claim names ≥ 1 person (party + role + dated act/quote) or labels the absence ([diffuse — no named actor]).
  • Counter-narrative present — at least one explicit competing hypothesis, dissent quote, or framed objection appears in the body; "no opposition recorded" is itself a finding to label, not silence.
  • Election cycle lens applied — the §"Cycle Watchlist" subsection addresses electoral salience, coalition pressure, and forward indicators for the active ${cycleAnchor} cycle; not boilerplate. If cycleAnchor=current, §"Mandate-Fulfilment Scorecard" is present and populated. If cycleAnchor=next, §"Coalition-Formation Forecast" is present and populated.
  • No illustrative content shipped as fact — every [REQUIRED] placeholder is filled OR removed; every Example: block is clearly fenced or removed; no fabricated dok_id, vote count, or quote leaks into the final artifact.
  • Cross-references resolve — every [link](file.md) in this artifact points to a file that exists in the run folder (analysis/daily/$ARTICLE_DATE/$SUBFOLDER/) or to a methodology / template under analysis/.
  • Mermaid renders — every fenced ```mermaid block parses (no missing class definitions, no orphan nodes, no >40-node graphs that overflow viewport on mobile).
  • Line-floor check — artifact length ≥ the per-artifact floor in reference-quality-thresholds.json; shorter artifacts trigger Pass-2 rewrite, never a [truncated] note.